Objective: To investigate the predictive value of serum progesterone and CA-125 regarding pregnancy continuation in women with threatened abortion.
Patients and Methods: A case control study was conducted on 200 women with intrauterine pregnancies between 6-12 weeks with demonstrable embryonic pulsation. They were classified into 2 groups: Group I included 100 women with the diagnosis of threatened abortion. Group II included 100 women with normal asymptomatic pregnancy.CA 125 and serum progesterone were measured in all women.
Results: Women with threatened abortion showed a significantly higher number of previous abortions and CA 125 levels (47.82±30.93 vs. 30.08±19.21, P =0.36) and lower rate of pregnancy continuation (76 vs. 90%, P = 0.044) when compared to controls. Women who continued their first trimester of pregnancy showed a significantly higher number of previous abortions and progesterone level (43.12±20.85 vs. 19.26±11.8, P = 0.01) and lower level of CA 125 (34.9±11.053 vs. 61.9±19.21, P = 0.022) when compared with those who aborted. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of CA 125 and progesterone in predicting occuarance of abortion were (80.66, 100,100,95.4% and 78.88,97.05,93.7,01.3% respectively. Conclusion: CA125 and progesterone are good predictors for the outcome of 1st trimester of pregnancy in both normal women and those with threatened abortion. Both have excellent specificity and good sensitivity in prediction of the outcome.