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28243

Econometric Estimation of The Most Important Factors Affecting Wheat Gap and Expectation in Egypt

Article

Last updated: 03 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Economic

Abstract

The wheat crop is one of the main food crops with an strategic importance in the food pattern .In 2016, local production was not able to cover consumption needs from the wheat, resulting in a food gap of about 10.07 million tons and a self-sufficiency decrease to about 48.15%. The main objective is to identify the current status of wheat food gap in Egypt during the period (2000-2016) and its future forecasting up to 2025 The results indicated that Egypt's wheat production is expected to increase in 2019 with 10.17% from the current production in 2016 and is expected to increase in 2025 with 24.45%. Egypt's consumption of wheat is expected to increase in 2019, with 4.35% over the total consumption in 2016 and is expected to increase about 20.8% in 2025. The food gap in 2025 is expected to increase about 17.4% from 2016. The average estimates of the most important factors affecting wheat shows that increasing the local production of wheat crop about 10% leads to a decrease in the food gap about 14.5% at the level of significant (1%), while increasing it The average population per capita and the loss of 10% increases the wheat gap about 19.8%, 33.1% and 19.5% at the usual level of significant. The study recommends that production should be increase 150.9% from the wheat production in 2016 to overcome food gap in 2025, furthermore decreasing the annual wheat consumption from 160 to 100 kg /person is important.

DOI

10.21608/jsas.2019.6883.1125

Keywords

econometric, estimatio, most important, factors, affecting, Wheat gap, and it's expectation in Egypt

Authors

First Name

Mourad

Last Name

Moussa

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Agricultural Economics Department, Faculty of Ariculture, Kafrelsheikh University.

Email

drmouradzaki@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Ashraf

Last Name

Elftiani

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Economics Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Kafrelsheikh, Egypt

Email

prof.ashraf521@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Yasmin

Last Name

Hanbal

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Agricultural Economics Department, Faculty of Ariculture, Kafrelsheikh University.

Email

jasmin_agri_eco@yahoo.com

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

45

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

5688

Issue Date

2019-06-01

Receive Date

2018-12-27

Publish Date

2019-06-01

Page Start

91

Page End

100

Print ISSN

2536-9571

Online ISSN

2536-958X

Link

https://jsas.journals.ekb.eg/article_28243.html

Detail API

https://jsas.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=28243

Order

28

Type

Original Article

Type Code

364

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Sciences

Publication Link

https://jsas.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Econometric Estimation of The Most Important Factors Affecting Wheat Gap and Expectation in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023