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244114

Modeling the future scenarios for surface temperature and wind regime over the South-Eastern Levantine Basin, Egypt

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Last updated: 23 Dec 2024

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Abstract

The understanding of long-term variabilities for surface air temperature and the wind regime is essential for the adaptation and mitigation plans over South Eastern Levantine (SEL), the current paper analyses the recent trends of Sea Surface Wind (SW), and surface air temperature (T2m)  using regional climate model of RegCM-SVN from 2006 up to 2100 with 25 km2 grid resolution. RegCM-SVN was driven with ERA5 for recent simulations (2006-2020). However, the model was driven with two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) ) RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of HADGEM for future simulations (2006-2100). The bias between the simulated results and ERA5 reanalysis data was used to assess the modeling results along the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, ERA5 database was used to understand the model simulations of T2m and WS over SEL. The results proved that RegCM-SVN in the future simulation (2020-2100) for T2m, U10 and V10 using two climate change scenarios; RCP 2.6 and   RCP8.5 over the SEL revealed a significant warming range from 0.3 to 3.6 °C. The RegCM-SVN and ERA5 are almost similar in both simulations for T2m and SW at both scenarios, with a strong correlation (> 0.90) over the entire oceanic area and over 0.85 (0.80) at the land area (southern part of the Gulfs of Aqaba and Suez) for both scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The validation processes indicated that RegCM-SVN successfully simulated the surface air temperature and wind regime over the study area.  The simulated SW and T2m that are expected to have many socioeconomic negative impacts, especially in tourism, agriculture, water demand, and health. Coastal processes including the current system and marine biodiversity are also likely to be negatively affected by climate changes.

DOI

10.21608/ejabf.2022.244114

Keywords

Mediterranean Sea, air temperature, wind regime, regional climate modeling, Future scenario

Authors

First Name

Mohamed

Last Name

Elbessa et al.

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Volume

26

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

33860

Issue Date

2022-05-01

Receive Date

2022-06-15

Publish Date

2022-05-01

Page Start

541

Page End

564

Print ISSN

1110-6131

Online ISSN

2536-9814

Link

https://ejabf.journals.ekb.eg/article_244114.html

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https://ejabf.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=244114

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30

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Original Article

Type Code

103

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Biology and Fisheries

Publication Link

https://ejabf.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Modeling the future scenarios for surface temperature and wind regime over the South-Eastern Levantine Basin, Egypt

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Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023