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264200

An Analytical Study of The Most Important Export Seasons for The Grape Crop in Egypt

Article

Last updated: 01 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Agricultural Economic

Abstract

This study aims to identify the export seasons during the period from 2015-2019, as well as to predict the quantities and prices of Egypt's exports of the grape crop so that the necessary production can be provided to meet export requirements in accordance with the expectations and forecasts of external demand for it. The study of the export seasons of the grape crop showed that the most important export periods are the period from May to August, with an average of about 183633.95 tons, which is equivalent to about 98.09% of the average of the total study period. The amount is about 187,193.49 tons. The study showed that most of the months in which the external demand for grapes increases, represents the months of export with high prices, which means an increase in the export revenue. It was also shown from the results of the seasonal forecast using the general trend for the months of the period from 2015-2019, that the total quantity expected to be exported from grapes will increase by an estimated rate of 45.88%, 54.89%, 63.90% for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, respectively, compared to the average of the aforementioned period. It was also noted that the demand for grapes will increase during the period (May-August) at an estimated rate of about 97.54% of the total estimated quantity for the period from 2022-2024, while the estimated prices increased by rates representing about 67.28%, 80.81%, 94.34% in the years 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively, compared to the average for the period from 2015-2019. It was found that export prices approach each other in similar proportions during the year, but the months of May, January, December, June, April and March are the highest in prices.

DOI

10.21608/ajas.2022.128533.1124

Keywords

analytical study, export seasons, grape, Seasonal forecast

Authors

First Name

Mahmoud S.M.

Last Name

Khalefa

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Assiut University, Egypt

Email

me845213@gmail.com

City

Assiut

Orcid

-

First Name

Suzan Abdalmajeed

Last Name

Aboelmajd

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Assiut University, Egypt

Email

suzan.majeed@agr.aun.edu.eg

City

Assiut

Orcid

-

First Name

Salah A.

Last Name

Saleh

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Assiut University, Egypt

Email

salah.fadalallah@agr.au.edu.eg

City

Assiut

Orcid

-

First Name

Ramy A.

Last Name

Abdelhafiz

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Assiut University, Egypt

Email

dr_ramy@ymail.com

City

Assiut

Orcid

-

Volume

53

Article Issue

4

Related Issue

37148

Issue Date

2022-10-01

Receive Date

2022-03-20

Publish Date

2022-10-01

Page Start

176

Page End

183

Print ISSN

1110-0486

Online ISSN

2356-9840

Link

https://ajas.journals.ekb.eg/article_264200.html

Detail API

https://ajas.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=264200

Order

14

Type

Original Article

Type Code

62

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Assiut Journal of Agricultural Sciences

Publication Link

https://ajas.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

An Analytical Study of The Most Important Export Seasons for The Grape Crop in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023