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Using the Dynamic Time Series Models for Forecasting the Prices of Surge Crops in Egypt

Article

Last updated: 01 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Agricultural Economic

Abstract

There are many econometric methods for forecasting by different economic variables in the future, recently, the procedures of dynamic forecasting either for Univariate or multivariate models were available for estimation on the software packages, i,e,, EViews, The research problem of the study, concerned with the different types of such dynamic models, with respect to, estimation, choosing the best fit model for forecasting by the economic variables, i,e,, price on the agricultural and national level, So the objective study,  is to concentration and determination the best forecasting model among Univariate and multivariate dynamic time series models, The time series data on the farm gate price of sugar cane and sugar beet were collected from the ministry of agriculture during the period (1998-2013), The methodology framework discussed the theoretical and mathematical approach for the dynamic Univariate models, i.e. autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The dynamic models contain four stages that have, identification, i.e. Stationarity and Co integration tests, model selection criteria for determination the lag length, Granger causality test, and choosing the techniques of estimation, also estimation stage, diagnostic stage for model accuracy, and finally forecasting stage, The study estimated the dynamic models by (ARIMA) models, (during the period (1998-2013), and forecasting by price of the two crops through the period (2015-2020), The estimation and forecasting results, indicated that the price will increase at increasing rate. Finally the study recommended by more projection studies in the field of agriculture with its different resources , and encouragement the investment in projects that have high returns , the expanding in cultivating new lands and national projects, also increasing the price of these crops that reflect the high productivity.

DOI

10.21608/ajas.2015.583

Keywords

Time series animation-sugary-crop, Prices

Volume

46

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

150

Issue Date

2015-02-01

Receive Date

2015-03-02

Publish Date

2015-02-01

Page Start

93

Page End

107

Print ISSN

1110-0486

Online ISSN

2356-9840

Link

https://ajas.journals.ekb.eg/article_583.html

Detail API

https://ajas.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=583

Order

9

Type

Original Article

Type Code

62

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Assiut Journal of Agricultural Sciences

Publication Link

https://ajas.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Using the Dynamic Time Series Models for Forecasting the Prices of Surge Crops in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023