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270292

Analysis of the Factors Affecting Wheat Production in Matrouh Governorate using the ARDL Model

Article

Last updated: 01 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Agricultural economics

Abstract

Wheat is one of the strategic crops related to food security, and to increase its production and reduce import, it's necessary to increase its cultivated area by 50%. The study aimed at estimating the wheat supply response function using the ARDL model in Matrouh. The results showed that the error correction coefficient l (CointEq(-1)) (Cointegrating Form is negative and significant -0.441093) at a level of significance less than 0.01), which means that there is a long-term relationship, and the negative value means a regression to the equilibrium value), and the coefficients of the variables show the independent equation in the long-term co-integration equation, where the coefficient of the variable amount of rainwater, That is, there is a positive and statistically confirmed relationship (at a level of significance less than 0.01), and this agrees with reality. The coefficient of wheat price variable was negative and significant, meaning that there is a statistically confirmed inverse relationship (at a significant level greater than 0.01) between the wheat price variable as an independent variable and the area planted with wheat as a dependent variable, although this does not agree with statistical logic, it agrees with the actual reality where it is used as animal feed, due to the lack of water for irrigation during the process of expelling the ears. The study recommends the optimal use of available water resources, including rain water, rain harvesting in Matrouh, and attention to irrigation operations, especially during the period of expulsion of the ears to increase production.
 

DOI

10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2022.270292

Keywords

ARDL Model, time series test, Wheat, model stability test

Authors

First Name

Samar

Last Name

Abdelazim Elkadi

MiddleName

Mahmoud

Affiliation

desert research center

Email

samarelkadi10@gmail.com

City

cario

Orcid

-

Volume

43

Article Issue

4

Related Issue

37463

Issue Date

2022-12-01

Receive Date

2022-10-10

Publish Date

2022-12-01

Page Start

1,323

Page End

1,349

Print ISSN

1110-0176

Online ISSN

2536-9784

Link

https://asejaiqjsae.journals.ekb.eg/article_270292.html

Detail API

https://asejaiqjsae.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=270292

Order

19

Type

Original Article

Type Code

53

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Alexandria Science Exchange Journal

Publication Link

https://asejaiqjsae.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Analysis of the Factors Affecting Wheat Production in Matrouh Governorate using the ARDL Model

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023