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194883

Using Moving Time Series Models to Forecast of Economic Variables of Wheat in Egypt

Article

Last updated: 01 Jan 2025

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Abstract

Egypt has been suffering from an absolute shortage of wheat production and supplies for domestic consumption, which has affected the overall food security situation in the country. As a result, the government relies heavily on wheat imports to compensate for the shortage of domestic supplies. This study was designed to study the economic indicators of wheat in Egypt and predict the economic variables to estimate the apparent gap and the value of imports of wheat to provide some recommendations can be help the decision-makers and agricultural policy-makers related to wheat in Egypt. To achieve the objectives of the study we applied a moving time-series models (ARIMA), and the results of forecasting economic variables of wheat  in Egypt, which were statistically confirmed according to several related tests, showed that the total production of wheat in 2025 is expected to reach  8.2 million tons, while the total consumption is expected to reach  21.1 million tons, and therefore the apparent gap for wheat in Egypt will reach 12.9 million tons.

DOI

10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2021.194883

Keywords

wheat crop, production, Consumption, ARIMA Models, Egypt

Authors

First Name

Moataz

Last Name

Eliw

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

4 El-Nasser Salah El-Din Street, Minya Governorate, Egypt moatazeliw@azhar.edu.eg

Email

moatazeliw@gmail.com

City

El-Minia

Orcid

0000-0003-0666-3502

First Name

Eman

Last Name

Ramadan

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Benha university.

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City

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Orcid

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Volume

42

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

26297

Issue Date

2021-09-01

Receive Date

2021-08-15

Publish Date

2021-09-30

Page Start

1,783

Page End

1,799

Print ISSN

1110-0176

Online ISSN

2536-9784

Link

https://asejaiqjsae.journals.ekb.eg/article_194883.html

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https://asejaiqjsae.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=194883

Order

32

Type

Original Article

Type Code

53

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Alexandria Science Exchange Journal

Publication Link

https://asejaiqjsae.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Using Moving Time Series Models to Forecast of Economic Variables of Wheat in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023