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315049

Forecasting the Number Of External Pilgrims: The Ratio-To-Trend Classical Decomposition Method

Article

Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

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Abstract

The ratio to trend classical decomposition method was used to decompose external Hajj time series into trend, seasonal, and error components, and to forecast the number of external pilgrims. On the basis of the point forecasts, interval predictions were also generated. Point predictions were accurate according to resulting value of Theil's inequality coefficient and the 95% confidence limits established around the predicted values were able to hold most of the actual values. Projection has also been attempted outside the period of forecast.

DOI

10.21608/esju.1990.315049

Keywords

External Hajj Time Series, Forecasting, Ratio-To-Trend Classical Decomposition Method, Theil's Inequality Coefficient

Authors

First Name

Mohamed

Last Name

Abou-El-Fetouh

MiddleName

Fathi

Affiliation

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City

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Orcid

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Volume

34

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

43205

Issue Date

1990-12-01

Receive Date

2023-08-29

Publish Date

1990-12-01

Page Start

378

Page End

407

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_315049.html

Detail API

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=315049

Order

8

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Forecasting the Number Of External Pilgrims: The Ratio-To-Trend Classical Decomposition Method

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Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024