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387180

Modeling the dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

Article

Last updated: 29 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease spread by infected rodents known as multimammate
rats. The disease has posed a signifcant and major health challenge in West African
countries, including Nigeria. To have a deeper understanding of Lassa fever epidemiology in Nigeria, we present a deterministic dynamical model to study its dynamical
transmission behavior in the population. To mimic the disease's biological history,
we divide the population into two groups: humans and rodents. We established the
quantity known as reproduction number R0. The results show that if R0 < 1 then the
system is stable, otherwise it is unstable. The model ftting was performed using the
nonlinear least square method on cumulative reported cases from Nigeria between
2018 and 2020 to obtain the best ft that describes the dynamics of this disease in
Nigeria. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed, and the numerical solution
of the system was derived using an iterative scheme, the ffth-order Runge–Kutta
method. Using diferent numeric values for each parameter, we investigate the efect
of all highest sensitivity indices' parameters on the population of infected humans and
infected rodents. Our fndings indicate that any control strategies and methods that
reduce rodent populations and the risk of transmission from rodents to humans and
rodents would aid in the population's control of Lassa fever.

DOI

10.1186/s42787-021-00124-9

Keywords

Lassa fever, Reproduction number, stability, Model ftting, Sensitivity analysis, Numerical simulation

Authors

First Name

Mayowa M.

Last Name

Ojo

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Affiliation

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, USA.

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First Name

B.

Last Name

Gbadamosi

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Affiliation

Department of Computer Sciences, Landmark University, Omu-Aran, Kwara State, Nigeria.

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First Name

Temitope O.

Last Name

Benson

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Affiliation

Institute for Computational and Data Sciences, University at Bufalo, State University of New York, Albany, USA.

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First Name

O.

Last Name

Adebimpe

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Department of Physical Sciences, Landmark University, Omu-Aran, Kwara State, Nigeria.

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First Name

A. L.

Last Name

Georgina

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Department of Microbiology, Landmark University, Omu-Aran, Kwara State, Nigeria.

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Volume

29

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

50998

Issue Date

2021-01-01

Receive Date

2024-10-20

Publish Date

2021-01-01

Page Start

1

Page End

19

Print ISSN

1110-256X

Online ISSN

2090-9128

Link

https://joems.journals.ekb.eg/article_387180.html

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https://joems.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=387180

Order

387,180

Type

Original Article

Type Code

3,248

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society

Publication Link

https://joems.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Modeling the dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

Details

Type

Article

Created At

21 Dec 2024