Beta
129342

Prediction of Loss Ratio Using Nonparametric Regression

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

-

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to use the nonparametric regression to predict the loss ratio of non-life insurance as a dependent variable, based on incurred claims and earned premiums as two explanatory variables. Secondary data adopted in this research consists of twelve year time series of incurred claims and earned premiums from 2007/2008 to 2018/2019. In this paper we used R Package to apply kernel smoothing and estimation of the smoothing parameter (bandwidth) using cross validation methods. Afterwards, we applied a local polynomial (constant and linear) and Locally Estimated Smoothing (LOESS) in order to predict loss ratio. The results from local polynomial and LOESS indicate that the predicted value of loss ratio has a slight increasing trend over the upcoming three years period. All analysis and calculations in this paper has been performed using the R package codes as open source software.

DOI

10.21608/cfdj.2020.129342

Keywords

Nonparametric Regression, Kernel Smoothing, Bandwidth, Insurance, Loss Ratio

Authors

First Name

محمود

Last Name

السيد

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Cairo University Faculty of Commerce

Email

mah.elsayed_njk@foc.cu.edu.eg

City

Cairo

Orcid

-

First Name

عمرو

Last Name

سليمان

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Cairo University Faculty of Commerce

Email

s.amr@foc.cu.edu.eg

City

Cairo

Orcid

-

Volume

2

Article Issue

العدد الأول - الجزء الأول

Related Issue

19258

Issue Date

2021-01-01

Receive Date

2020-08-07

Publish Date

2021-01-01

Page Start

527

Page End

548

Print ISSN

2682-3403

Online ISSN

2682-4531

Link

https://cfdj.journals.ekb.eg/article_129342.html

Detail API

https://cfdj.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=129342

Order

16

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

1,242

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة العلمية للدراسات والبحوث المالية والتجارية

Publication Link

https://cfdj.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Prediction of Loss Ratio Using Nonparametric Regression

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023