Abstract
Nowadays Egypt faces two big problems, the first one is the global changes of weather, sea level will rise and some areas of the Nile Delta will inundate by water. The second one is the starting filling of grand Ethiopian renaissance reservoir (GERR), this will effect strongly the estimated life span of the Aswan High Dam Reservoir. The objective of this research is to estimate the expected time of immigration people to the new delta on the basis of the mentioned variations.
Recently many scientists and researchers ( Susan Solomon;2009, Mohamed El Raey;1997, Stanley and Warne;1993) studied the effect of sea level rise and subsidence of the Nile Delta in Egypt regarding to the effect of the Ozone hole that been exist from increases in carbon dioxide concentration during the last few decades. The mean value of sea level rise (SLR) were collected and found to be 40 cm/100years. The subsidence rate of the Nile Delta was determined by Stanley and Warne (1993) and given as 2mm/year. The expected time of submergence of Nile Delta can be determined.
Life Span of Aswan Reservoir was studied by many researchers during the last three decades of the last century. There results obtained on the basis of different studies and according to many approaches. It ranges from 362 years to 365 years (Shalash,1980, Makary;1982 and Moussa;1985).
According to the volume of sediment that will be retained by grand Ethiopian renaissance dam (GERD) which studied during the last few years by civil engineering department at M T C and was found to be 57.50 X 106 m3 for one storm/year
.Then the life span of Aswan Reservoir can be estimated according to the establishment of this dam. The time difference between submergence of the existing Nile Delta and the filling of Aswan Reservoir by sediment will be helpful for determining the suitable expected time of immigration to the new delta in Egypt.